This week has been a good week in weather, because not much has happened, this week's headlines are below and then I'll go into the weather for next week.
Local Student Tours the NWS
I was given a tour by Meteorologist-in-Charge Brian Lamarre on Thursday, and, much to my surprise, he made a story up about it. I gave details about the office in my last post.
The Story Can Be Found Here
WFO Key West Becomes a LEED Certified Green Building
The National Weather Service office in Key West, Florida is now a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certified green building.
Not only is it one of only three LEED certified green buildings in the National Weather Service, the forecast office in Key West is also the first designed to withstand winds speeds and storm surge levels associated with a catastrophic category 5 hurricane. Constructed with a combination of concrete, reinforcing steel and hurricane impact-resistant glass, the facility was built to withstand sustained winds of 165 mph. The interior contains an additional concrete structure designed to serve as a Severe Weather Occupancy Shelter to protect against winds up to 250 mph.
Full Story Here
Now for next week's weather:
There will be a 50% of rain tommorow, as the cold front that moved through the Midwest earlier this week, comes and goes just as quickly, but other than that, expect cool, sunny weather. Temperatures will be in the low 60s to extreme high 50s through Monday, in the mid 60s for Tuesday, and then warming back up into the 70s for the rest of the week. There is a possibility for temps to get down into the low 30s on Monday night and Tuesday night, but don't expect anything much colder than that.
The weather the rest of the week will be warm, up to Sunday, when the cold front that is currently in the Midwest, will move through, giving us a slight chance for rain. The front, which is strong now, should be weaker and temperatures are currently expected to be only in the mid 60s during the day and high 30s that night.
Yesterday, I was given a tour of the NWS office in Ruskin by Meteorologist-in-Charge, Brian Lamarre.
It was an excellent tour and the operations area where everything goes on was amazing. I'll give a quick summary:
There are seventeen meteorologists that work at the office in Ruskin, a Meteorologist-in-Charge (MIC), , as you can probably tell by the
name, is the Chief Meteorologist; a Science and Operations Officer (SOO), who manages the training program; and a Warning Cooridination Meteorologist (WCM), who is in charge of a lot of the outreach and ensures that there is strong communication between the local WFO and local media and emergency response officials.
In addition, there
are senior forecasters and general forecasters, as well as meteorologist
interns, hydrometeorological technicians, electronics technicians and engineers,
a hydrologist and an administrative support assistant.
There are at least two meteorologists at the office at all times, and during severe weather, such as powerful hurricanes and tornadoes, they have a reinforced shelter, which can hold up to ten people (I would hate to be one of the other seven).
They launch weather balloons twice a day to measure wind speed, barometric pressure, temperature, and other parameters.
For More Info Click Here
Picture is below:
This week, a warm-up will occur across the area, as temperatures move into the high 70s after today. The rest of the week should be warm, with highs into the high to mid 70s and lows in the high 40s.
There are two upcoming Skywarn training classes in March, schedules are below:
Levy County SkywarnTM
March 2, 2009
Basic SkywarnTM Training, 6:00 PM
Advanced SkywarnTM Training , 7:00 PM
Emergency Operations Center
9010 NE 79th Ave
Bronson, FL 32621
Pinellas County SkywarnTM
March 9, 2009
Basic SkywarnTM Training, 6:30 PM
Advanced SkywarnTM Training , 7:30 PM
Hacienda Clubhouse, Ranchero Village Mobile Homes
7100 Ulmerton Rd, Largo
Largo, FL 33771
Yesterday, I got to tour Bay News 9 with Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay! It was really cool actually getting to see what goes on behind the scenes.
I also got to meet Josh Linker, another Bay News 9 meteorologist. It was amazing getting to watch a few live weather reports, and getting to see and talk to them for a few hours was cool.
Also while I was there, there was some nasty severe weather going on in Alabama/Georgia, which I'll be getting to later, but it was fun to track the storms with them between "Weather On The Nines", because I got some input/feedback on the storms that I normally wouldn't get by just watching it by myself on radar.
Something else I found out is that the NWS has a chatroom set up so they can communicate about any severe weather reports or events that occur, but unforunately only the NWS, media, and emergency management have access (NOT FAIR).
Now, moving on.
The storms were spread out all over the area, but there was one storm in particular, just southeast of Atlanta, that really stood out. We used a radar product called GR2Analyst, which is one of the best commercial radar products out right now, to track the storms, and before I saw it in person, I didn't know what to expect, because I've heard different things about it from people and reviews but getting to use it was cool, as it is easy to use. So, anyway, I'll start with the storm to the southwest of Atlanta. We started to watch it around 5:00, when it was just starting to get severe, and by about 5:45, it was approaching just southwest of Atlanta, we saw on the NWSChat system that one of the local forecasters had said he saw a hail spike on the radar that was the largest he'd ever seen, and as it turned out when we checked that report, it was 4.53 inches!
More about GR2Analyst
There are radar images of the storm and total storm reports below:
(Each image links to a larger picture)
Locally, today and tomorrow we will see rain chances ranging from 30% today, and a 60% chance tomorrow. Temps will cool down into the high to mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday, with another cold front coming through on Thursday.
Some of the highlights of the many weather events from this past week are below:
Major Earthquake Hits Indonesia:
A major earthquake hit off the eastern coast of Indonesia at 2:34 P.M. EST Wednesday, and 1:34 A.M. local time on Thursday. The earthquake, a massive magnitude 7.0, struck about 195 miles from Manado, the northernmost city on Sulawesi island. The USGS said it was centered 21 miles below the ocean floor, five aftershocks of at least magnitude 5 followed. No deaths or injuries have been reported.
Full Story Here
The NWS Assists in Australia:
Earlier this week, the National Weather Service sent fire weather experts to Australia to help battle the seemingly unextinguishable fires that have become one of the worst natural disasters, if not the worst, in Australian history. The National Weather Service and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology agreed in 2006 to exchange fire weather expertise and staff during the U.S. and Australian wildfire seasons, which occur at opposite times of the year in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Brent Wachter of the Albuquerque, N.M. WFO and Daniel Borsum of the Billings, Mont., office were stationed in Australia when the latest wildfires began raging last weekend. Robert Tobin of the Spokane, Wash., office went to the Australian state of Tasmania to provide fire weather forecasting support the day after the wildfires began. Wachter has since returned to the United States.
These “incident meteorologists” undergo extensive training to support fire-fighting efforts and are able to forecast weather conditions at precise locations during extreme wildfires.
Full Story Here
Tornado Hits Edmond, Oklahoma:
During the severe weather earlier this week, there was an EF3 tornado in Edmond, Oklahoma. There were a few different reports on this tornado:
2048 3 WSW EDMOND OKLAHOMA OK 3564 9753 TORNADO LASTED APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES. TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. TORNADO APPEARED TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE NW SIDES OF EDMOND. RECEIVED DAMAGE REPORTS ON (OUN)
2053 3 WNW EDMOND OKLAHOMA OK 3566 9753 *** 1 INJ *** A TORNADO FORMED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 192ND AND WESTERN AVENUE AND LIFTED 5 MILES NORTH OF EDMOND ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE INTO LOGAN COUNTY. SEVERAL HO (OUN)
2105 3 WSW EDMOND OKLAHOMA OK 3564 9753 TORNADO LASTED APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES. TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. TORNADO APPEARED TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE NW SIDES OF EDMOND. RECEIVED DAMAGE REPORTS ON (OUN)
Two videos of the tornado are below:
Storm Reports for 2/10/09
Pictures of the Aftermath of the storms
There is a moderate risk of severe storms tomorrow across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana, and a slight chance of storms into the Mississippi Valley. From the Storm Prediction Center:
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN
TX...SERN OK AND SWRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF OK/TX EWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER/MID VS VALLEY. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION APPEARS
COMPLICATED...AND THIS PRECLUDES A LARGER MODERATE RISK AREA.
MONITOR TUESDAY/S DAY 1 OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL
CONUS...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FROM THE SWRN
STATES INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA BY EARLY WED MORNING. A 90-100 KT MID
LEVEL IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND MOVE INTO SWRN
TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND AR OVERNIGHT. WHILE NAM/GFS SHOW A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE MO/AR BY 11/12Z... NAM MOVES
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EWD ACROSS NRN OK AND THE GFS THOUGH NRN
TX TUESDAY.
TX/OK NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
CURRENTLY PREFER GFS SURFACE LOW SOLUTION AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
SPREADS FROM SWRN TX TOWARD THE ARKLATEX DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW LIKELY WILL NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL LATE UNTIL MAIN UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD INTO FAR WRN
TX. SINCE THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN TX IS EXPECTED
TO STALL LATER TODAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOWING CURRENT LOWER/MID 60S TO
RETURN NWWD INTO SJT/ABI/SPS AREAS OF WRN TX AND NWD INTO
OK...MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-44...TUESDAY. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT...500 MB TEMPERATURES
FROM -18C TO -20C...SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE
TUESDAY.
STRONG 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING FORCING IS SUGGESTIVE OF
THE INITIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A SQUALL IN THE SPS/ABI/SJT
AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/TRAILING
FRONT. VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND THE EXPECTED FAST
TRANSLATIONAL MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE.
HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN TEXAS...SRN/ERN OK AND WRN
ARKANSAS...DISCRETE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND CONSEQUENT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION WITHIN INTENSIFYING /50-70 KT/
850 JET CORE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-60 KT AND STRONG FORCING WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND ROTATING STORMS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...20-30 KT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION DURING THE
DAY MAY RESULT IN WEAKER CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
COMPLICATE THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF STRONG CONVECTION LATER IN
THE DAY.
STORMS AND SQUALL WILL SPREAD ENEWD INTO AR/LA/SRN MO OVERNIGHT
...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS WRN TN/NWRN MS BY DAYBREAK WED.
DESPITE SOME WEAK NOCTURNAL COOLING VERY STRONG KINEMATICS AND UPPER
SYSTEM FAVOR A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER... INCLUDING
TORNADOES...TUESDAY NIGHT.
Residents of the affected areas should monitor their local media, NOAA Weather Radio, and the National Weather Service for updates.
A major warm up is expected this week as a ridge begins to build in from the Southwest, and should stay entrenched throughout the week. Highs are forecast to reach from the lower 70s to lower 80s through this week, the only exception will be near the coast, as gulf water temperatures keep beaches in the 50s to 60s.
In other news.......
There was the uncertain Mt. Redoubt eruption and the recovery of the affected states from the major late January winter storm that knocked out power to millions earlier this week, and Australia has had some extreme temperatures, earlier this week Perth, Australia went ten consecutive days above 109 degrees, and here people in Los Angeles were complaining about ten days in a row at 80 degrees. On top of the extreme temperatures, there have also been wildires, about a dozen of which still burn across three states. Temperatures reached a state record in the Gippsland region, topping out at 117 degrees. Unfortunately, the death toll has reached 25, and is expected to rise.
Back in the U.S., 100+ fishermen fishing on an unfrozen part of Lake Erie have been rescued from an ice floe that broke away from shore. NWS meteorologist Bill Randel said ice covering the west side of Erie is up to two feet thick, but started to crack as temps rose above freezing this weekend. Authorities said that the fishermen used wooden pallets to create a bridge over a crack in the ice so they could go farther out on the lake Saturday morning.
But the planks fell into the water when the ice shifted, stranding the fishermen about 1,000 yards off shore. Ice fisherman who regularly visit the lake have said this winter's thick ice has lured more people to the lake this year. Even in very cold weather, the ice on western Lake Erie is often unsafe because currents can easily cause the ice to shift. Firefighters in communities along the lake are trained for rescues from the ice and are often on guard when temperatures rise.
Full Story
Tonight should see the end of some of the cold weather in Florida, and temperatures are expected to reach average readings by the weekend. But while we've been battling cold weather, California has been battling drought.
Here are the statistics, compared with this time last year:
Now:
.8% of the state has NO DROUGHT, while 99.2% of the state is currently categorized as ABNORMALLY DRY, 89.4% is currently MODERATE, 54.7% is currently SEVERE, and 19% is currently EXCEPTIONAL, and no EXTREME.
This time last year:
18.2% of the state had NO DROUGHT, 81.8% was ABNORMALLY DRY, 36.6% was MODERATE, and 14.1% was SEVERE, with no EXCEPTIONAL and no EXTREME.
Already, some cities are limiting water use to only 150 gallons per day. Fortunately, rain is expected over the next week in areas of California, not enough to really stop the drought, but Californians will be happy for what they can get as we head into warmer, drier months.
Mt. Redoubt, an active volcano about 100 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska has started to look like it may erupt soon. Geologists with the U.S.G.S. from the Alaska Volcano Observatory have been inundated with calls for the past two weeks from people asking when Mt. Redoubt will erupt. Much of the concern over the pending eruption is because of Redoubt's last eruption, back in 1989, when an Anchorage-bound KLM Royal Dutch Airlines 747 flight with 231 passengers aboard flew through the Redoubt ash cloud and nearly crashed into the Talkeetna Mountains. Redoubt is under some of the same symptoms as it did back in 1989, such as shallow earthquakes near the summit. More info
Scientists from the Lower 48 and Canada have beefed up the number of people monitoring the volcano's activity 24 hours a day and are conducting flyovers to observe the action and measure gas levels. Officials also plan to install new monitoring equipment, including a pressure sensor to detect explosions.
Hopefully, it will not erupt, current weather patterns would most likely carry an ash plume south of Anchorage, and possibly into British Columbia.
Locally, tonight and tomorrow will be cold and maybe a little windy, into the high teens, and also tomorrow there will be a Wind Chill Advisory, on top of the Hard Freeze Warning. The Wind Chill Advisory is in effect through early Thursday morning, the actual wind chill is expected to be somewere around 13 degrees.
The National Weather Service in Ruskin provided support for Super Bowl XLIII. A ten man team consisting of Meteorologist-in-Charge Brian LaMarre; Warning Coordination Meteorologist Dan Noah; Science and Operations Officer Charlie Paxton; Senior Forecasters Rick Davis, John McMichael, Michael Cantin, Paul Close, Nick Petro; and, Forecasters Jennifer Colson and Ernie Jillson worked rotating shifts to provide critical up-to-the-minute weather information.
More info here
Tuesday through Thursday we will see a return to cold weather, as the jetstream heads our way once again.
We'll start Tuesday with highs in the mid to high 50s, which is a bit below average for this time of year, and then lows on Tuesday night in the high 20s and low 30s. Wednesday, expect highs in the low 50s and lows in the lower 20s, and possibly extreme high teens, depending on your location. Thursday we should see highs in the low to mid 50s and lows can be expected to reach the lower to mid 20s, with Friday hopefully warming up some into the mid 60s.
Another major event: Snow in London!
It was the biggest snow event to hit London in 18 years, as eight inches fell in 24 hours. All five airports in the city were shut down briefly, with close to 800 flights cancelled throughout the day. Also, because of the weather, trains and buses did not run.
Full Story
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