The severe weather is still out there, after a crazy week of tornadoes, hail, flooding, and even snow in Texas!
The weather across Tampa Bay is going to be up and down this week, with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. We even have a chance for rain today, tomorrow, and possibly Tuesday into Thursday.
This week we saw tornadoes all over the place, 64 to be exact. (Prelimininary) We also saw 345 reports of hail, and 263 wind reports, so I would say we've had a busy week.
This week's drought update has seen improvement across the Southeast, but Texas and Florida are hurting from lack of rain. Comparing last week's map with this week's map shows some improvement, just not where we need it.
Sorry I didn't update last night, but I got busy and forgot about it. There is a Moderate Risk of severe weather today, and looking at the SPC's Mesoscale Analysis, it looks pretty dangerous.
The storms yesterday dropped six tornadoes, along with 30 wind reports and 60 hail reports, and the storm that looked like it might go through San Antonio ended up going to the south of the city, and then spawned a tornado, two funnel clouds and some hail near Corpus Cristi.
So far, the storm currently in Florida/Georgia has already spawned two tornadoes and there have been five hail reports. Parts of Florida and Georgia are under a Tornado Watch.
The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota is currently at 40.63 ft., last observed at 11 am CDT. The record flood stage is 40.1 ft., the river is not forecast to crest until April 1st at 1:00 am CDT. More Info
Starting in mid-late April, I think I'm going to give a daily local severe weather forecast, based on the Skew-T Soundings, what the NWS thinks, and what I think our chances for severe weather are. I would like some feedback on what you think I should do, and if you have any other site requests, I will try to the best of my ability to add new things to the site.
The weather is rather nasty today, as there is a storm just to the south of San Antonio, on top of the other severe weather across the Southeast, parts of Florida are under a Tornado Watch. More on today's weather tonight.
Mt. Redoubt has finally erupted. It erupted five times, first at 10:38 P.M. last night, and the last erupted was at 4:30 A.M. this morning. It was the volcano's first eruption in nearly 20 years.
Alaska Airlines cancelled 19 flights out of Anchorage today, and, at Elmensdorf Air Force Base, around sixty fighter jets, cargo aircraft, and a commercial 747 plane were being sheltered.
The 10,200-foot Redoubt Volcano, roughly 100 miles southwest of Anchorage, last erupted during a four-month period from 1989-90.
In its last eruption, Redoubt sent ash 150 miles away into the path of a KLM jet and its four engines flamed out. The jet dropped more than 2 miles before the crew was able to restart all engines and land safely. The plane required $80 million in repairs.
Meanwhile, the volcano became restless earlier this year. The observatory had warned in late January that an eruption could occur at any time.
Increased earthquake activity over the past 48 hours prompted scientists to raise the alert level for Mount Redoubt on Sunday. On Sunday morning, 40 to 50 earthquakes were being recorded every hour. A steam plume rising about 1,000 feet above the mountain peak was observed Saturday.
Full Story
More Info (NWS)
The latest severe outlook from the SPC does not look good. As of right now, there is a MODERATE RISK of severe weather, including hail, possibly strong damaging winds, and everyone's favorite, tornadoes. Here is the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for tomorrow:
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...NRN
OK...CNTRL OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL CLOSE-OFF TONIGHT ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 65 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NWD
INTO THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN IA AND ERN NEB SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO NRN
OK. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT PLAINS...A
POWERFUL 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET ALONG WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN
RESPONSE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEVELOPING A
CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN SD AND NW NEB
MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD INTO ERN SD BY
EARLY AFTERNOON EXPANDING SWD WITH TIME ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN NEB.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF NEB INTO SRN SD MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA AT 15Z MONDAY SHOW STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT/ AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL. AS THE
COMPLEX MOVES NEWD INTO ERN SD AND DEVELOPS SWD ACROSS ERN NEB
MONDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE CONVECTION CAN
REMAIN DISCRETE.
...OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/NORTH TEXAS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AN IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 100 KT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE
AXIS OF THE JET...CONVECTION SHOULD NOT INITIATE THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CAP AND RAPIDLY INITIATING STORMS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR IN ERN KS WITH
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SSWWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL OK DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
POSITION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL CERTAINTY
THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NNE TO SSW
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING.
AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NCNTRL KS TO ABOUT 75 KT IN SRN OK. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL FROM SE KS SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL
OK WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTH TX. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND
SRN KS SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGESTING
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR
ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. IF A SQUALL-LINE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
THE DOMINATE SEVERE THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING STORM MODE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WARRANTS A
MODERATE RISK FROM ERN KS SSWWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL OK.
Anyone in the affected areas should take all precautions, and should stay tuned to their local news station and local National Weather Service office for the latest information.
It looks like we'll be having a week of moderately warm weather, with temeratures in the mid to high 70s and low 80s. It should remain sunny this week, and lows will be in the low to high 50s. For those of you living in the Plains, it looks like you could have a small severe weather outbreak on Monday and Tuesday, here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center:
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN...CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DYNAMIC MIDLEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 90+ KT JET STREAK WILL LIFT NEWD
FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO SD/NEB WHILE A TRAILING JET
STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS MORE EWD THROUGH THE TX PNHDL AND
OK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER NERN CO WILL
UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO ERN
SD. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH EWD
INTO CNTRL PARTS OF NEB/KS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY POLAR COLD
FRONT SURGING SEWD. FARTHER S...DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD THROUGH WRN OK
AND NWRN TX BEFORE MERGING WITH POLAR FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT OVER
ERN OK INTO N-CNTRL TX.
...GREAT PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THAT ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY RESERVOIR OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES /7-8 C PER KM/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL JET CORES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE SRN PLAINS...MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN MONDAY WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY PLUME OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY TRAILING JET STREAK/VORTICITY
MAXIMUM...BOOSTING MLCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG TOWARD 24/00Z FROM SRN KS
INTO OK.
INITIAL TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY INVOF SURFACE LOW AND
IMMEDIATELY TO THE S ALONG OCCLUDING PACIFIC AND POLAR FRONTS OVER
PARTS OF NEB/KS. WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT NEAR OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER NEB WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. RAPIDLY BACKING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WITH
TIME ACROSS NEB INTO KS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A
LINEAR SYSTEM WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FROM CNTRL KS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE AND GENERALLY
WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS OR DISCRETE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF
RATHER STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG SURGING
COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
If anything develops, which it probably will, hail will most likely be the main threat, for those of you who don't understand weather-talk, but isolated tornados are also possible.
No weather headlines this week, as I wanted to change it up for this update, (and because there weren't any interesting weather stories out there) but there will be next week.
Drought Update
The drought across the country just won't slow down. While the drought across California has improved greatly, and the drought in Texas has improved slightly, but the drought in Florida has gotten much worse. Here in Florida, we are under severe drought from Citrus County down to Hillsborough, and it looks to be getting worse.
Wildfire is going to be a huge concern this Spring, going into Summer, it doesn't help that we've had all the freezes come through either. In St. Petersburg, they are talking about the possibility of banning sprinklers, and they've already started water rationing. Below is the current drought across Florida.
Have a good first week of Spring and if you are in the Plains Monday-Tuesday, stay safe! (Image links to larger version)
During what is left of this week, we will see a cool down in temperature across the area, into the low 80s and low to mid 70s. Friday is the first day of Spring, and luckily, there is no severe weather forecast.
Speaking of severe weather, today is the anniversary of the Tri-State Tornado, which devestated three states: Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. It killed 695 people, across 219 miles, and is the deadliest tornado in U.S. history. It was actually part of a larger outbreak of tornados, in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, which killed 39 people. More Info: 1 2 3
Enjoy the first day of Spring on Friday everybody, I know Wisconsin weather watchers will.
If you haven't already noticed, there is now an About section on the blog, as well as a Coming Soon section. The weather headlines are below, followed by the weather for next week.
Oil Spill In Australia
Authorities declared a disaster zone Friday along a stretch of some of Australia's most popular beaches after tons of fuel oil that leaked from a cargo ship blackened the creamy white sand for miles.
The National Parks at Moreton and Bribie islands just north of the state capital of Brisbane were hardest hit by oil spilled Wednesday from the container ship Pacific Adventurer, and oil washed ashore in pockets along the Sunshine Coast.
Swire Shipping Ltd., the Hong Kong-registered ship's owner, said containers of fertilizer had slipped from the ship's deck as it rocked in rough seas, ripping a hole in a fuel tank and spilling more than 11,000 gallons (42,500 liters) of heavy fuel oil into the sea. Later, the company said an inspection of the hull led it to conclude the amount of spilled oil was "significantly more" than that, but did not give a figure.
Full Story Here
Flood Safety Awareness Week Is March 16-20, 2009
The Weather Next Week
The weather next week should be mostly sunny and warm, with the possibilty of rain on Tuesday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, and high 70s after a cold front moves through on Tuesday. Lows will be in the low to high 50s, and maybe low to mid 60s.
Something I Thought I Should Mention
As Hurricane Season draws closer, only three-and-a-half months away, I wanted to give some information that hopefully you will all enjoy, and that might help make people more aware.....
Back in December, I was given a tour of the Aircraft Operations Center's hanger and got to tour one of the Hurricane Hunter planes, "Miss Piggy". The AOC is at Macdill AFB, not to be confused with the National Hurricane Center.
The Hurricane Hunters are based at Macdill, and apart from flying through hurricanes, they also go on reseach flights all over the world. In fact, the meteorologist who gave me the tour was recently in Alaska for 27 days. They were trying to estimate the wind speed at the sea surface based on the roughness of the ocean waves. They cooridinated the flight with satellites that were overhead at the time. Some of the winds they measured were just below hurricane force, so we're talking some major wind!
I would have posted about the tour back in December, but I really hadn't gotten into blogging then.
Pictures are at the end of the post. (Each Image Links To Larger Version)
Also, something I found last night on Yahoo! Sports that some of you might find funny.
NASA has postponed the Shuttle launch set for tonight, because of a gas leak. The next launch attempt will be on Sunday.
Full Story
Space Shuttle Discovery is set to launch tonight at 9:20:10 p.m., and weather conditions appear to be cooperating, as Shuttle weather officer Kathy Winters is estimating a 90 percent chance of "go" weather conditions. There will also be a full moon.
If for some reason Discovery is unable to launch tonight, mission managers have said they can try again up until March 16, though pushing the liftoff that late would mean cutting a few days off the planned 14-day flight.
This mission has been delayed for nearly a month because of concerns over suspect fuel control valves in the shuttle's main engines. During the last Shuttle launch, Endeavour's November 2008 liftoff, a valve on that orbiter cracked, though it did not affect the flight. To be on the safe side, engineers replaced all three valves on Discovery with a new set known to be damage-free. Mission managers said they feel confident the issue poses no threat to the shuttle or its crew.
More Info Here and Here
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