As you can see, the severe weather page is now up. Enjoy! Any ideas or suggestions are welcome. If you have any problems with the page, let me know and I'll fix is ASAP.
Warm weather is on the way for Tampa Bay, with 80 degree temperatures for pretty much all of next week. Lows will be on the warm side, ranging from 60 to 70 degrees in the area.
For those of you into the NFL, the Draft is today, at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. NYC is going to have to deal with exceptionally hot temperatures, in the upper 80s through Wednesday, when temps drop down into the 60s. I haven't been there in Spring or Summer, but I have been there during Winter, and I'll tell you this: THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 20 DEGREES AND 88 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY WITH WIND CHILL!
There are three upcoming SKYWARN classes on Monday. Two will be in Polk and one will be in Hardee, here is a complete schedule with dates and times.
Speaking of SKYWARN, I hope there are plenty of spotters and chasers on hand in Oklahoma today, because the SPC has part of the state in a Moderate Risk for severe weather. Missourri, Kansas, Michigan, and Illinois are all under a Slight Risk as well. Ther is potential for strong hail and a few strong tornadoes across the Plains today:
SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK.
THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE NE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK. IN
THE MDT RISK AREA...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
NEAR INTERSECTION OF STALLING SFC FRONT AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. AN
INCREASINGLY CONDITIONAL THREAT /DUE TO EML CAP/ WILL EXTEND SWD
ALONG DRY LINE TOWARD NW TX.
A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
JUST AFTER DARK WHEN SSWLY LLJ APPRECIABLY STRENGTHENS... SEASONABLY
RICH MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUES /KEEPING STORMS SFC-BASED/...AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE WITH CONTINUED ENE MOVEMENT OF GRT BASIN
UPR TROUGH. THE PATTERN RESEMBLES PAST EPISODES THAT HAVE PRODUCED
ONE OR TWO STRONG NOCTURNAL TORNADOES IN THE REGION. LLJ-RELATED
BOOST IN HODOGRAPH SIZE MAY YIELD 300-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH BY MID
EVE.
If you are in the path of this or any severe weather, staying tuned to your local NWS office and local media for up-to-date information.
The Suncoast Stormwatch Weather Wiki is currently in need of new members. If you would like to join, leave a comment asking for an invite (email needed for invite), or go to the wiki and sign up to be a member of the wiki. If you have any questions, I will answer them on this post through comments.
In other news, today is the 25th anniversary of the 1984 tornado outbreak in northeast Wisconsin.
Fires raged across Myrtle Beach, South Carolina today, and it was reported to be the worst wildfire in the state in 30 years. Dozens of homes were destroyed by the fire, which at one point was four miles wide.
The fire got within 1.5 miles of Route 17, and 2,500 people were forced to evacuate. 23 miles have been burned by the fires over the past two days, and it is still unknown how the flames started. Most of the damage occured at Barefoot Landing, with about 70 homes were completely destroyed, while 100 others were damaged.
More Info
The National Hurricane Center issued their verification report for the 2008 hurricane season.
According to a new study from the University of Washington, many people don't understand a rainy weather forecast.
One example given is for a 20% chance of rain. Some people think it means that it will rain for twenty percent of the time, while others think it means that there will be rain for twenty percent of the area covered by the forecast.
450 Pacific Northwest college students were tested. The first experiment evaluated forecasts of either a low or a high percentage chance of precipitation accompanied by a series of icons, or "precipicons," that were visual representations of the chance of rain. The precipicons included the familiar cloud symbols used by many forecasting outlets, as well as pie charts and bar graphs. Each student only saw one icon and forecast, and filled out a questionnaire.
Two of the questions asked for how long it would rain and over what areas. Only 43 percent of the students correctly responded with the choice "can't tell from this forecast."
Those who responded incorrectly were more likely to say they'd wear a jacket or bring an umbrella, suggesting they thought it was definitely going to rain.
Full Story Here
My initial forecast for this week was off a little so here is a quick revision:
For the rest of the week, expect sunny skies, with highs in the mid to high 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s.
Here is a link to a story by NWS Ruskin. Some of the pictures are a bit funny.
UPDATE TO STORY ABOVE
To Quote a friend I sent the story to: (Easier to quote than try to give a better explanation myself, when I know I can't)
"The probability of precipititation is the probability of any particular point area within a forecast area receiving measurable precipitation in a given time period."
"The POP is determined by
two parameters: The probability that any precipitation will occur in forecast
area AND predicted areal coverage of precipitation if precipitation does occur.
Thus, areal coverage is just one aspect of POP. The chance that any measurable
precipitation will occur in the first place within the forecast area must also
be considered. When referring to POP it is most accurate to say, "There is a
___% POP that any particular measurement station in the viewing area will get
precipitation". For example, when averaged over many 30% POP days, a particular
station should have precipitation 30% of the time if the forecaster or computer
model is accurate.
For example, suppose during the course of a year that a Tampa measurement station has a 30%
POP on 100 individual days. If the POP prediction is fairly accurate over the
long term, it should have precipitated at the Tampa station on about 30 of those
days. Thus, think of POP in terms of a long term average prediction. All to
often, people assume a 20% chance of rain means 20% of forecast area will get
rain on that one day. This is often not the case for any one day. Often no
precipitation occurs at all in the forecast area on days with a 20% POP since
one component of POP is the chance that any precipitation will develop. "
Severe weather season is starting to get busy! There were 3 tornadoes in Florida this week, along with a whole lot more severe weather that has occured in Texas, and across the Southeast.
LOCAL WEATHER
The local weather across the region during this upcoming week will be warm and sunny. Highs will decrease slightly on Monday, with a cold front coming through that will drop us into the 70s for almost all of next week, and also give a chance of rain for the day. There is a possibility of extreme low 80s in some spots next week. Lows will be anywhere from the 50s th 60s.
SEVERE WEATHER RECAP/OUTLOOK
The severe weather is not over for the time being, because there is still a chance for severe weather today and the next few days. The SPC currently believes that there is a SLIGHT risk for severe weather over the course of the next two days.
Unfortunately for us Floridians, the state is not immune to severe weather. There were three tornadoes in Pasco County on Tuesday, leaving destruction in their wake.
The tornadoes were rated EF0 to EF1.
Storm Survey By NWS Ruskin
SPC Reports
The updates to the severe weather page are finished, but my hosting provider is experiencing difficulties that prevent the page to be displayed properly, as soon as the glithes are fixed, I will put the page back online.
Here is a drought report by the local NWS office in Ruskin. On Thursday April 30th, I'm going to look at and compare local rain and snow amounts to average for the month and year to date for several cities around the country, so if anyone wants to give me their local rainfall for the month and year to date, I'd be happy to add those too.
NASA's Kepler spacecraft sent back the first images of a distant part of the Milky Way, one containing 14 million stars. The 600 million dollar mission will begin in a few weeks, and will last three-and-a-half years. Full Story
How do like the new changes? I plan on making some other changes in the coming months, but for right now, this is it. The severe weather page is almost finished, and you can see it as a work-in-progress here. If you have any suggestions, or ideas (and I know you do), please let me know. I am going to apply for an NCAS weather camp at Jackson State University, and hopefully, I'll get in.
The weather for tomorrow into Saturday will be seasonably warm, with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s. Expect mostly sunny conditions aroud the area, as well a slight breeze.
Just to let everyone know, the Severe Weather page is currently down while I make some changes, I can't give a set date for when it will be back up because I'm not sure how long it will take. At the most, it will be down for about two weeks. Sorry for any issues or inconveniance this may cause you.
Tomorrow's weather is looking pretty good, with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Overall, Tampa is looking at a high of 86, with a low of 67; Brooksville, a high of 84, with a low of 61, and finally Fort Myers, with a high of 85 and a low of 71.
The weather next week will be nice, and not too hot, as a cold front will come through on Monday, bringing a chance for rain Monday into Tuesday.
Highs will be in the high 70s to low 80s everyday except Monday, and lows will be in the 50s to 60s, depending on your location.
The severe weather this past week has been a bit scary for some, and I'm sure, a bit thrilling for others (storm chasers). It all started on Wednesday, with one tornado and one report of hail, and then really got started on Thursday, with 30 tornadoes, 102 wind reports, and 159 hail reports, 281 reports of severe weather in all. Yesterday, there were 42 tornadoes, 43 wind reports, and 179 hail reports. Unfortunately, there were also nine people injured, and three people died this week because of severe weather. Friday Storm Reports Thursday Storm Reports
Ryan Weather has more coverage of the severe weather.
I'm in the proccess of re-designing the Severe Weather page, so I won't have a local drought report this week, but you can go here for one from the NWS in Ruskin. If you have any suggestions for the Severe Weather page, let me know.
RSS Feed