Suncoast Stormwatch

We are now only THREE DAYS from the start of the 2009 Hurricane Season.

This is the last awareness statement from the NWS as part of Hurricane Preparedness Week: Steps To Prepare and Plan For Hurricanes

Being prepared is the most important part of protecting yourself from storms. You may know the dangers of tropical systems, but if you don't know how to protect yourself from one, it's not going to help you much.                 

                                SO, THE QUESTION IS                

                                              THIS:                   

                                         ARE YOU PREPARED?   

Here are a few quick steps to getting prepared:

1. Make a plan - Know evacuation routes and plan for the possible event of having extra people stay with during the storm. (Family, Friends)

2. Make an emergency kit - Make a kit with all the necessary things you'll need: battery-operated radio, NOAA Weather Radio (highly recommended), plenty of food, any medication you require, and other things you might need, I've just listed a few essentials.

3. Know what to do after the storm -  Loss of power almost always occurs with tropical systems, and if the area you live in is damaged, and you have evacuated, emergency official might not let you into the area.                                  

Only FOUR more days.........

Today's awareness statement theme is Marine Weather Safety.

During hurricane season, many mariners go out to sea without ever thinking about the weather. If you don't pay attention to the weather, you could find yourself in a very bad situation. During hurricane Katrina, I think it was (I may be wrong), there were a bunch of open-water rescues.

Also, the first tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane Season formed today. Luckily, it's out over open water and should dissipate by Saturday. There is a chance that it could become a tropical storm before then, if that happens, it would be named Ana.

Here are a few links to marine weather information and hurricane tracking links:

Hurricane Tracking:

Suncoast Stormwatch Tropical Page

The National Hurricane Center

 If you scroll to the bottom of the Suncoast Stormwatch page, there are links to some other interesting sites.

Marine Weather:

 
NWS Marine Weather Home Page


NWS Ruskin Marine Weather Page


 

FIVE DAYS..... Five days left to get ready for the upcoming hurricane season.

Today's awareness statement theme is Inland (Freshwater) Flooding

 Flooding is and has been a problem associated with hurricanes, and yet, you still see people attempting to travel through flooded areas. Follow the National Weather Service's motto for floods: "Turn Around, Don't Drown!"

Quoted from NWS Ruskin's awareness statement:

"PRIOR TO 2005...STUDIES REVEALED THAT FRESHWATER FLOODING WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE THAN HALF THE FATALITIES FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE UNITED STATES. INLAND FLOODING CAN BE A CATASTROPHIC THREAT TO COMMUNITIES WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST AS TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAINS PERSIST. RECORDS HAVE SHOWN THAT SEVERAL OF THE STORMS HAD WEAKENED TO DEPRESSIONS WHEN THE WORST FLOODING OCCURRED."

ARE YOU PREPARED? The start of Hurricane Season 2009 is only six days away. 

Today's awareness statement theme is High Winds and Tornadoes.

Some people tend to think that all they need to be worried about with tropical systems are the heavy rain, floods, and loss of power, but wind is a cause of concern as well.

Strong winds can send objects flying, and tropical systems have some high (emphasis on high) winds. Here is the Saffir-Simpson Scale from the National Hurricane Center:



Category One Hurricane: Sustained winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Damaging winds are expected. Some damage to building structures could occur, primarily to unanchored mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction). Some damage is likely to poorly constructed signs. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Numerous large branches of healthy trees will snap. Some trees will be uprooted, especially where the ground is saturated. Many areas will experience power outages with some downed power poles. Hurricane Cindy (pdf) (2005, 75 mph winds at landfall in Louisiana) and Hurricane Gaston (2004, 75 mph winds at landfall in South Carolina) are examples of Category One hurricanes at landfall.

Category Two Hurricane: Sustained winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Very strong winds will produce widespread damage. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings will occur. Considerable damage to mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs is likely. A number of glass windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death.. Numerous large branches will break. Many trees will be uprooted or snapped. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in widespread power outages that could last a few to several days. Hurricane Erin (1995, 100 mph at landfall in northwest Florida) and Hurricane Isabel (2003, 105 mph at landfall in North Carolina) are examples of Category Two hurricanes at landfall.

Category Three Hurricane: Sustained winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Dangerous winds will cause extensive damage. Some structural damage to houses and buildings will occur with a minor amount of wall failures. Mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Many windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Hurricane Rita (pdf) (2005, 115 mph landfall in east Texas/Louisiana) and Hurricane Jeanne (2004, 120 mph landfall in southeast Florida) are examples of Category Three hurricanes at landfall.

Category Four Hurricane: Sustained winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds causing devastating damage are expected. Some wall failures with some complete roof structure failures on houses will occur. All signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (primarily pre-1994 construction). Extensive damage to doors and windows is likely. Numerous windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Windborne debris will cause extensive damage and persons struck by the wind-blown debris will be injured or killed. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Fallen trees could cut off residential areas for days to weeks. Electricity will be unavailable for weeks after the hurricane passes. Hurricane Charley (2004, 145 mph at landfall in southwest Florida) and Hurricane Hugo (1989, 140 mph at landfall in South Carolina) are examples of Category Four hurricanes at landfall.

Category Five Hurricane: Sustained winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Catastrophic damage is expected. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings will occur. Some complete building failures with small buildings blown over or away are likely. All signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (built in any year). Severe and extensive window and door damage will occur. Nearly all windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Severe injury or death is likely for persons struck by wind-blown debris. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Hurricane Camille (pdf) (1969, 190 mph at landfall in Mississippi) and Hurricane Andrew (1992, 165 mph at landfall in Southeast Florida) are examples of Category Five hurricanes at landfall.

 
I was on my way to Myrtle Beach, SC when Hurricane Gaston struck South Carolina  as a Category One, and a hurricane is DEFINITELY SOMETHING YOU DO NOT WANT TO DRIVE THROUGH, I WILL TELL YOU THAT RIGHT NOW.  

Quick reminder to local visitors of the site: There will be two Hurricane Expos this Saturday, May 30th, one at Weeki Watchee, in Hernando County and one in Tampa, at the Museum of Science and Industry (MOSI). More info about the Tampa Expo can be found here, and more info about the Hernando Expo can be found here. Both will have vendors and hurricane preparedness information. Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay, from Bay News 9 will be at the Hernando Expo.

Several meteorologists will be at the Tampa Expo: Josh Linker (meteorologist, Bay News 9), Paul Dellegatto (meteorologist, Fox 13), as well as several NWS meteorologists from NWS Ruskin. There will be a panel of meteorologists and emergency manager type people answering questions at 11:00am and 1:00pm. I will be there and will have pictures on the Weekly Update after the Expo.

Happy Memorial Day!

This week is Hurricane Preparedness Week.

Each day I'll give a little information about hurricanes and I'll also give a link to a statement by the local NWS office about hurricane preparedness. Today's topic is storm surge.  (Wikipedia)

Storm surge is one of the deadliest aspects, if not the deadliest, of hurricanes. Storm surge is " THE WATER THAT IS PUSHED TOWARD THE SHORELINE BY THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. THE ADVANCING SURGE COMBINES WITH THE NORMAL TIDE TO PRODUCE A HURRICANE STORM TIDE. STORM TIDES CAN INCREASE THE MEAN WATER LEVEL BY 15 FEET OR MORE IN MAJOR HURRICANES. POUNDING WIND DRIVEN WAVES CAN DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE IMPACT OF THE RISING WATER. " Quoted from NWS Ruskin's hurricane preparedness guide, day 1.


Also, my previous forecast of rain chances slowly going down this week seems to be wrong. Instead it looks like we'll have chances similiar to last week:

Brooksville 

Tampa

Lakeland

We've had a wet week here in Florida. Just looking at the following image tells you all you need to know:

Click For Larger Image

NOAA has just released their Atlantic hurricane season outlook, as well as their Pacific hurricane season outlook. Their Atlantic forecast calls for a average season, with forecasters saying there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes, while the Pacific forecast is calling for a below-normal to normal season. 

The Pacific outlook calls for a 40 percent probability of a below normal season, a 40 percent probability of a near normal season and a 20 percent probably of an above normal season.

Locally, we've had a good week, not including the two tornadoes (one on Tuesday in Lakeland, and one in Temple Terrace on Wednesday, which I'll be getting to in a moment). Highs will actually be cool next week, in the mid 80s, with lows ranging from 60s to 70s. Also, a chance for rain will hang around each day this week as Florida enters it's rainy season.

On Wednesday, there was a destructive tornado that hit Kirksville, MO. Here is a video:

The National Severe Weather Charts pages have been updated with some cool new features. For one thing, all images are slideshow-based. There is audio on the main page, so make sure to turn up your sound. If you experience problems with any of the pages, let me know so I can fix them.

 There is a MODERATE RISK of severe storms tomorrow, here is the current outlook from the SPC:

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND
   ILLINOIS...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
   SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ACCOMPANYING 90-100 KT JET MAX
   WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED.
   BY EVENING TIME...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
   FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWD ALONG TO THE IA/IL BORDER AND THEN SWWD
   INTO NRN OK/TX PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT...PROGGED TO STRETCH EXTEND
   FROM WRN IA SEWD INTO NERN AR AT DAYBREAK...WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
   SRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE DAY 2. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
   FEATURES SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...WITH VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO
   THE SRN PLAINS. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL AND NERN MO.
  
   ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
   ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET/WARM
   ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DURING
   THE MORNING HOURS.
  
   AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD...CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD DECREASE
   SOMEWHAT...WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING RAPIDLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
   DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR. THIS INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT COMBINED
   WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FAVORS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
   DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
   SHEAR/INSTABILITY/HEATING IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD INTO WRN
   IL. THE STRONG FORCING AND INCREASING STRONGER MID/HIGHER LEVEL
   WINDS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO A FAST MOVING
   SQUALL LINE/BOW...WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   HOWEVER...THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 1KM SRH BETWEEN 300-400
   M2/S2 WOULD FAVOR TORNADOES..SOME STRONG...WITHIN BOWS AND DISCRETE
   STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND NWD INTO WI DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE THE UPPER FORCING WILL BE  GREATER BUT
   INSTABILITY WEAKER...AND EWD INTO ERN IL/WRN IN DURING THE EVENING
   HOURS AS THE SQUALL LINE ADVANCES EWD.
  
   ...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR AND OK...
   THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE
   EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
   LATE IN THE DAY. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES FROM 7-8C/KM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN A
   VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
   THE MAIN FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF THIS REGION...STRONG HEATING AND
   CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
   DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AFTER 21Z. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
   MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
   RESULT IN VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION. AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE MOSTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND
   PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE INITIAL THREAT. GIVEN
   THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...A FEW HOURS
   AFTER INITIATION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINEAR
   SYSTEM AND MOVE S/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL
   JET AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE
   STORMS AND VERY LARGE HAIL...SO PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY BE
   UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

Local Weather

In the Tampa Bay Area, we're looking at low to mid 90s and high 80s this week. It looks as if we'll see a small chance for rain Tuesday into the weekend, maybe around 20-30%.

Weather In The News

There is definitely plenty to talk about this week. There was a derecho that affected the southern U.S., which started on May 2nd and lasted through May 8th. There were the Santa Barbara wildfires (link 1, link 2, link 3), the discovery that NASA is running out of fuel for deep space missions, and the outreach activities of some local meteorologists.

Vortex 2 Details

Just in case you haven't been watching the Weather Channel this week (like everyday, and been driven to the point of insanity by all the constant advertising for it, like me), go to the Official NSSL Home Page, the Weather Channel Home Page For Vortex 2, Vortex 2 on Twitter, and Vortex2.org for more information.

Upcoming Events

There is going to be a shuttle launch tomorrow.

On May 27th, there will be a SKYWARN training class in Hernando County Also, on May 30th at the Museum of Science and Industry (MOSI) in Tampa, there is going to be a Hurricane Expo that the NWS will be participating.