Suncoast Stormwatch

The CPC issued it's updated Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is valid until July. Most of the country is expected to improve, except for parts of Texas, California, and Hawaii, where current drought conditions will persist. The Outlook is below:

"Over the last month, widespread moderate to heavy precipitation has eliminated or reduced drought severity in the middle Atlantic States, the Great Lakes region, parts of the south-central Plains, portions of the Intermountain West and adjacent Rockies, and the central Sierra Nevada. Most notably, intense rainfall was observed in parts of the southern Plains along the central Red River Valley and the eastern tier of the drought region in Texas, where 10 to 20 inches were reported in a few areas. In addition, unusual (though not unprecedented) late-season precipitation brought at least short-term improvement to parts of central and northern California during the first few days of May, though no significant, widespread headway was made against the moisture shortages that have accumulated over the course of the last 3 years in the region. In contrast, drought persisted or intensified in other parts of the West, across the southern Rockies, in southern Texas, and through southern Florida since mid-April. From now through the end of July, continued improvement is expected in the drought areas covering the western Great Lakes region, the southern Appalachians and adjacent areas, and the Florida Peninsula, though in the latter region conditions may get worse over the next several weeks before the seasonal rainfall increase gets underway sometime in June. Similarly, a hot and dry pattern in the short-term could exacerbate drought in the southern Plains and Rockies before conditions become more favorable for significant rainfall around mid-May in the south-central Plains and southern High Plains, and during June or July when monsoonal rainfall typically picks up in the southern Rockies. Farther west, some improvement is forecast for portions of the interior West, but the low precipitation totals typical of this time of year should keep drought entrenched in the Far West and in existing areas of drought across Hawaii."


Meanwhile, severe weather is currently on the move, as of 4:30 p.m. there are Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Tornado Watches in most of South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, central Iowa, central Kentucky, and central Tennessee. Already, we've seen 9 tornadoes, 135 wind reports, and 25 hail reports. I'll give a recap of today's weather and a severe weather outlook in the Weekly Update tomorrow, but as of right now, the SPC is saying that there is a SLIGHT chance of severe weather from eastern Texas into parts of Georgia for tomorrow. 

Warm weather is on the way for Tampa Bay, with 80 degree temperatures for pretty much all of next week. Lows will be on the warm side, ranging from 60 to 70 degrees in the area.

For those of you into the NFL, the Draft is today, at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. NYC is going to have to deal with exceptionally hot temperatures, in the upper 80s through Wednesday, when temps drop down into the 60s. I haven't been there in Spring or Summer, but I have been there during Winter, and I'll tell you this: THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 20 DEGREES AND 88 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY WITH WIND CHILL!

There are three upcoming SKYWARN classes on Monday. Two will be in Polk and one will be in Hardee, here is a complete schedule with dates and times.

Speaking of SKYWARN, I hope there are plenty of spotters and chasers on hand in Oklahoma today, because the SPC has part of the state in a Moderate Risk for severe weather. Missourri, Kansas, Michigan, and Illinois are all under a Slight Risk as well. Ther is potential for strong hail and a few strong tornadoes across the Plains today:

 SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
   LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
   AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK.
    THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE NE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK.  IN
   THE MDT RISK AREA...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
   NEAR INTERSECTION OF STALLING SFC FRONT AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE.  AN
   INCREASINGLY CONDITIONAL THREAT /DUE TO EML CAP/ WILL EXTEND SWD
   ALONG DRY LINE TOWARD NW TX.

A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
   JUST AFTER DARK WHEN SSWLY LLJ APPRECIABLY STRENGTHENS... SEASONABLY
   RICH MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUES /KEEPING STORMS SFC-BASED/...AND
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE WITH CONTINUED ENE MOVEMENT OF GRT BASIN
   UPR TROUGH.  THE PATTERN RESEMBLES PAST EPISODES THAT HAVE PRODUCED
   ONE OR TWO STRONG NOCTURNAL TORNADOES IN THE REGION.  LLJ-RELATED
   BOOST IN HODOGRAPH SIZE MAY YIELD 300-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH BY MID
   EVE.

If you are in the path of this or any severe weather, staying tuned to your local NWS office and local media for up-to-date information.

Tomorrow's weather is looking pretty good, with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Overall, Tampa is looking at a high of 86, with a low of 67; Brooksville, a high of 84, with a low of 61, and finally Fort Myers, with a high of 85 and a low of 71.

The weather next week will be nice, and not too hot, as a cold front will come through on Monday, bringing a chance for rain Monday into Tuesday.

Highs will be in the high 70s to low 80s everyday except Monday, and lows will be in the 50s to 60s, depending on your location.

The severe weather this past week has been a bit scary for some, and I'm sure, a bit thrilling for others (storm chasers). It all started on Wednesday, with one tornado and one report of hail, and then really got started on Thursday, with 30 tornadoes, 102 wind reports, and 159 hail reports, 281 reports of severe weather in all. Yesterday, there were 42 tornadoes, 43 wind reports, and 179 hail reports. Unfortunately, there were also nine people injured, and three people died this week because of severe weather.  Friday Storm Reports Thursday Storm Reports

Ryan Weather has more coverage of the severe weather.

I'm in the proccess of re-designing the Severe Weather page, so I won't have a local drought report this week, but you can go here for one from the NWS in Ruskin. If you have any suggestions for the Severe Weather page, let me know.

There is currently a tornado watch in affect for the following Florida counties:

ALACHUA              BAKER               BRADFORD
CITRUS               CLAY                COLUMBIA
DIXIE                DUVAL               FLAGLER
GILCHRIST            HAMILTON            HERNANDO
LAFAYETTE            LEVY                MADISON
MARION               NASSAU              PASCO
PUTNAM               ST. JOHNS           SUMTER
SUWANNEE             TAYLOR              UNION

Hernando and Pasco County residents can to the local weather page for more info. All residents in the affected counties should stay tuned to their local NWS office and local media for more information.

The risk of Severe Weather today into tonight is slowly rising as the day progresses. There are tornado watches in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Hail and damaging winds are expected, and strong, long-lived tornadoes are a possibility.

 

 Here is the SPC's Convective Outlook for today:

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL/NRN MS AND AL...
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR N FL
   AND S GA...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
   AREAS...FOR THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL
   PLAIN...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPLICATED SCENARIO TODAY WITH THE LARGE ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE NE
   GULF COAST...AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SURGING EWD FROM LA/AR
   TOWARD MS AS OF MID-LATE MORNING.  THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL
   HAVE A POTENTIALLY LARGE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY
   INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. 
  
   ...MCS FROM NE GULF COAST TO S GA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
   THE TRAINING CONVECTION WITHIN THE GULF COAST MCS WILL LIKELY
   PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS N FL/S
   GA/SRN SC.  THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED BY A CONTINUED INFLUX
   OF 68-70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
   IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET.  A GRADUAL INCREASE
   IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LLJ AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADOES IN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT.
  
   ...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS LA/MS/AL/TN...
   THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE MS RIVER /WITH AN
   ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL AND POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE/ WILL LIKELY SWEEP
   EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO AL.  15Z SOUNDINGS
   FROM JAN/LIX HAVE SHOWN SOME LOW-LEVEL DRYING SINCE 12Z...BUT STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
   BAND...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.  FARTHER E...THE DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION
   ACROSS AL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
   LINE...AND THE ONGOING CONVECTION WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR ACROSS SE AL.
    STILL...THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AT
   LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOW
   ECHOES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
  
   ...SYNOPTIC LOW ACROSS AR/TN/NRN MS AND AL LATE EVENING...
   THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
   MAJORITY OF THE INLAND WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
   MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LEAVE A NARROW BELT OF SURFACE
   HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE CYCLONE
   CENTER /WHICH IS NOW JUST W OF TXK/.  THIS REGION OF STRONG FORCING
   WILL THEN SPREAD EWD OVER NRN MS/TN/NRN AL THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY
   TONIGHT.  THE MOST FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
   ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY E/SE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MDT RISK
   AREA IN MS/AL...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO COULD STILL
   OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING.  THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ACROSS NRN MS/WRN
   AND MIDDLE TN/NRN AL WILL BE THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY/ DESTABILIZATION
   IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS.

This is a dangerous situation, review all severe weather safety precautions, and stay tuned to your local media and local NWS office for up-to-date information.

National Weather Service

Storm Prediction Center

Sorry I didn't update last night, but I got busy and forgot about it. There is a Moderate Risk of severe weather today, and looking at the SPC's Mesoscale Analysis, it looks pretty dangerous.

 The storms yesterday dropped six tornadoes, along with 30 wind reports and 60 hail reports, and the storm that looked like it might go through San Antonio ended up going to the south of the city, and then spawned a tornado, two funnel clouds and some hail  near Corpus Cristi.

So far, the storm currently in Florida/Georgia has already spawned two tornadoes and there have been five hail reports. Parts of Florida and Georgia are under a Tornado Watch.

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota is currently at 40.63 ft., last observed at 11 am CDT. The record flood stage is 40.1 ft., the river is not forecast to crest until April 1st at 1:00 am CDT. More Info

Starting in mid-late April, I think I'm going to give a daily local severe weather forecast, based on the Skew-T Soundings, what the NWS thinks, and what I think our chances for severe weather are. I would like some feedback on what you think I should do, and if you have any other site requests, I will try to the best of my ability to add new things to the site.

The weather is rather nasty today, as there is a storm just to the south of San Antonio, on top of the other severe weather across the Southeast, parts of Florida are under a Tornado Watch. More on today's weather tonight.

The latest severe outlook from the SPC does not look good. As of right now, there is a MODERATE RISK of severe weather, including hail, possibly strong damaging winds, and everyone's favorite, tornadoes. Here is the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for tomorrow:

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...NRN
   OK...CNTRL OK...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
  
   ...NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...
   A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   WILL CLOSE-OFF TONIGHT ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 65 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NWD
   INTO THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS
   WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
   OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN IA AND ERN NEB SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO NRN
   OK. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT PLAINS...A
   POWERFUL 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
   TROUGH AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
   THE JET ALONG WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
   FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN
   RESPONSE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEVELOPING A
   CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN SD AND NW NEB
   MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD INTO ERN SD BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON EXPANDING SWD WITH TIME ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN NEB.
  
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE
   STRONG ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF NEB INTO SRN SD MONDAY MORNING.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA AT 15Z MONDAY SHOW STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT/ AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL. AS THE
   COMPLEX MOVES NEWD INTO ERN SD AND DEVELOPS SWD ACROSS ERN NEB
   MONDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE CONVECTION CAN
   REMAIN DISCRETE.
  
   ...OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/NORTH TEXAS...
   A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
   NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AN IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 100 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE
   AXIS OF THE JET...CONVECTION SHOULD NOT INITIATE THROUGH MUCH OF
   MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
   GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CAP AND RAPIDLY INITIATING STORMS
   BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR IN ERN KS WITH
   THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SSWWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL OK DURING THE
   EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
   POSITION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL CERTAINTY
   THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NNE TO SSW
   ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING.
  
   AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. BY
   00Z TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING
   FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NCNTRL KS TO ABOUT 75 KT IN SRN OK. IN
   ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ALONG THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MOST INTENSE
   STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL FROM SE KS SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL
   OK WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTH TX. IN
   ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND
   SRN KS SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGESTING
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. A FEW
   STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR
   ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING. IF A SQUALL-LINE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
   THE DOMINATE SEVERE THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
   ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING STORM MODE...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WARRANTS A
   MODERATE RISK FROM ERN KS SSWWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL OK.


Anyone in the affected areas should take all precautions, and should stay tuned to their local news station and local National Weather Service office for the latest information.

Yesterday, I got to tour Bay News 9 with Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay! It was really cool actually getting to see what goes on behind the scenes.

I also got to meet  Josh Linker, another Bay News 9 meteorologist. It was amazing getting to watch a few live weather reports, and getting to see and talk to them for a few hours was cool.

Also while I was there, there was some nasty severe weather going on in Alabama/Georgia, which I'll be getting to later, but it was fun to track the storms with them between "Weather On The Nines", because I got some input/feedback on the storms that I normally wouldn't get by just watching it by myself on radar.

 Something else I found out is that the NWS has a chatroom set up so they can communicate about any severe weather reports or events that occur, but unforunately only the NWS, media, and emergency management have access (NOT FAIR).

Now, moving on.

The storms were spread out all over the area, but there was one storm in particular, just southeast of Atlanta, that really stood out. We used a radar product called GR2Analyst, which is one of the best commercial radar products out right now, to track the storms, and before I saw it in person, I didn't know what to expect, because I've heard different things about it  from people and reviews but getting to use it was cool, as it is easy to use. So, anyway, I'll start with the storm  to the southwest of Atlanta. We started to watch it around 5:00, when it was just starting to get severe, and by about 5:45, it was approaching just southwest of Atlanta, we saw on the NWSChat system that one of the local forecasters had said he saw a hail spike on the radar that was the largest he'd ever seen, and as it turned out when we checked that report, it was 4.53 inches!
                                                                                                                               

More about GR2Analyst

There are radar images of the storm and total storm reports below:


(Each image links to a larger picture)