It looks like we'll be having a week of moderately warm weather, with temeratures in the mid to high 70s and low 80s. It should remain sunny this week, and lows will be in the low to high 50s. For those of you living in the Plains, it looks like you could have a small severe weather outbreak on Monday and Tuesday, here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center:
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN...CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DYNAMIC MIDLEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 90+ KT JET STREAK WILL LIFT NEWD
FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO SD/NEB WHILE A TRAILING JET
STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS MORE EWD THROUGH THE TX PNHDL AND
OK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER NERN CO WILL
UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO ERN
SD. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH EWD
INTO CNTRL PARTS OF NEB/KS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY POLAR COLD
FRONT SURGING SEWD. FARTHER S...DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD THROUGH WRN OK
AND NWRN TX BEFORE MERGING WITH POLAR FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT OVER
ERN OK INTO N-CNTRL TX.
...GREAT PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THAT ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY RESERVOIR OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES /7-8 C PER KM/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL JET CORES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE SRN PLAINS...MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN MONDAY WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY PLUME OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY TRAILING JET STREAK/VORTICITY
MAXIMUM...BOOSTING MLCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG TOWARD 24/00Z FROM SRN KS
INTO OK.
INITIAL TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY INVOF SURFACE LOW AND
IMMEDIATELY TO THE S ALONG OCCLUDING PACIFIC AND POLAR FRONTS OVER
PARTS OF NEB/KS. WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT NEAR OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER NEB WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. RAPIDLY BACKING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WITH
TIME ACROSS NEB INTO KS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A
LINEAR SYSTEM WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FROM CNTRL KS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE AND GENERALLY
WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS OR DISCRETE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF
RATHER STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG SURGING
COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
If anything develops, which it probably will, hail will most likely be the main threat, for those of you who don't understand weather-talk, but isolated tornados are also possible.
No weather headlines this week, as I wanted to change it up for this update, (and because there weren't any interesting weather stories out there) but there will be next week.
Drought Update
The drought across the country just won't slow down. While the drought across California has improved greatly, and the drought in Texas has improved slightly, but the drought in Florida has gotten much worse. Here in Florida, we are under severe drought from Citrus County down to Hillsborough, and it looks to be getting worse.
Wildfire is going to be a huge concern this Spring, going into Summer, it doesn't help that we've had all the freezes come through either. In St. Petersburg, they are talking about the possibility of banning sprinklers, and they've already started water rationing. Below is the current drought across Florida.
Have a good first week of Spring and if you are in the Plains Monday-Tuesday, stay safe! (Image links to larger version)
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